Operations Plan – Green Fruit Company
The intended business will have to understand various dynamics that relate to the market in which operations will be expected. One way to achieve this is by forecasting various market aspects, such as demand and prices. Essentially, forecasting is a process adopted by businesses to plan and control activities. Both qualitative and quantitative aspects will be considered in the forecasting process of Green Fruit Company regarding their influence on the procurement and supply of fruits: Operations Plan – Green Fruit Company.
However, this assignment only concentrates on the quantitative aspect, whereby the number of customers expected and the resources available will be used to perform forecasting. The number of customers reflects the demand for the company’s services, while the resources available represent the company’s ability to meet the demand (Caputo & Lusk, 2022). Tactical forecasts will be made from these elements to help the company make important decisions that would lead to profitability. The following section presents a data set used in forecasts related to demand and supply that will help make decisions for the company in the future.
| Past years customers (000) | The forecasted number of customers (000) | Actual outcomes (000) | |
| January | 3 | 4 | 3.4 |
| February | 4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| March | 4.5 | 5 | 4 |
| April | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5 |
| May | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| June | 3 | 2 | 5.8 |
| July | 2.5 | 2 | 3 |
| August | 2.5 | 2 | 2.8 |
| September | 2 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| October | 3 | 4 | 3.5 |
| November | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| December | 5 | 6 | 5.8 |
The above data illustrates the outcomes for the number of customers served in the recent year, the forecasted number of customers, and the actual results for the year for Green Fruit Company. When expressed in a chart, the results can be used by the company to predict the nature of the business that the company is likely to undertake in the following years. The chart is given below:
The chart indicates a trend that Green Fruit Company can use in the future. Essentially, this can be related to trend analysis. According to Bovenga et al. (2021), trend analysis is a technique that analysts use to predict future movements in various company aspects, such as sales, stock, and revenues, based on the observed trend. The trend in the chart above indicates a good start to the year for Green Fruit Company in January.
The demand for fruits grows as the months go by up to June and May before declining significantly. The decline is attributed to the nature of the company’s business, which is affected by weather and seasonality. During the descent, more customers experience a season when the market is flooded with fruits and demand goes down. However, the trend indicates the season does not last beyond September as fruits reduce in the market, pushing the demand up in a year’s remaining month.
From the forecast made in the chart and the trend observed, essential decisions can be made. First, the company should direct more of its resources in February, March, and April to make maximum sales, reduce investing more resources during the months at the dip, and increase them in the last three months of the year. The chart involves a minor error, considering the actual result’s trend matches the forecasted one; thus, it can be used reliably to make decisions.
References
Bovenga, F., Pasquariello, G., & Refice, A. (2021). Statistically-based trend analysis of MTInSAR Displacement time series. Remote Sensing, 13(12), 2302. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13122302
Caputo, V., & Lusk, J. L. (2022). The Basket-based choice experiment: A method for food demand policy analysis. Food Policy, 109, 102252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102252
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Question 
Week 5 – Operations Plan
Assignment Instructions
This assignment is intended to help you learn how to apply forecasting and demand models as part of a business operations plan.
Choose 1 quantitative element to research in relation to the organization that you selected for your business plan (SEE ATTACHED PREVIOUS ASSIGNMENTS). The element may be related to products, services, target market, consumer preferences, competition, personnel, resources, supply chain, financing, advertising, or other areas of interest as long as the element is related to a product or service that your organization is planning to offer.
Develop forecasts by implementing the following approach:
- Collect data, including old demand forecast (subjective data) and the actual demand outcomes.
- Establish the forecasting method (from readings). Decide on the balance between subjective and objective data and look for trends and seasonality.
- Forecast future demand using a forecasting method.
- Make decisions based on step 3.
- Measure the forecast error where applicable. Look for biases and improve the process.
Operations Plan – Green Fruit Company
Write a 350- to 525-word paper evaluating the findings from the supported data points above, and explain the impact of these findings on operational decision making. Insert charts and supporting data from Excel and other tools in your paper.
Cite references to support your assignment.
Format your citations according to APA guidelines.
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