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The Overconfidence Effect-Use of a Multiple-Choice Examination

The Overconfidence Effect-Use of a Multiple-Choice Examination

Borracci and Arribalzaga (2018) conducted research on the effect of overconfidence. They intended to investigate overconfidence and underconfidence among medical students. This research was motivated by the fact that there is a state of cognitive bias when one is overconfident, which may impact how a person performs. In this case, the researchers wanted to know how overconfidence affects the delivery of medical students’ care. Borracci and Arribalzaga (2018) added that the study examined the effects of underconfidence and overconfidence on medical students’ knowledge of surgery. The researchers used both new and traditional statistical approaches.

The study involved the use of a multiple-choice examination. The researchers invited 251 medical students who were almost graduating to participate in the multiple choice examination and later expressed how accurate they believed the responses were (Borracci & Arribalzaga, 2018). The accuracy was measured by their perceived confidence level from their response to the questions. When analyzing their confidence, the researchers compared the difference between the correct answers of a student and their self-estimated confidence (Borracci & Arribalzaga, 2018). In other words, the difference between confidence and accuracy of answers was considered positive. Underconfidence, on the other hand, was measured using negative differences. About twelve per cent of the participants were overconfident concerning their accuracy. Students who performed better, however, showed lower overconfidence, while those who performed poorly had slightly higher overconfidence. Generally, there were lower rates of underconfidence when compared to overconfidence (Borracci & Arribalzaga, 2018). Thus, this study examined the effects of overconfidence among medical students and showed that it impacts performance because those who perform poorly have higher overconfidence than those who perform well.


Borracci, R. A., & Arribalzaga, E. B. (2018). The incidence of overconfidence and underconfidence affects medical student examinations. Journal of Surgical Education, 75(5), 1223–1229.


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Discuss the following:

Identify a situation or event in which the over-confidence effect seems to be at play.

At the NU Library, research an academic article (i.e., peer-reviewed) of a scientific experiment with human subjects that demonstrates an overconfidence effect. National Library Link:

The Overconfidence Effect-Use of a Multiple-Choice Examination

The Overconfidence Effect-Use of a Multiple-Choice Examination

Briefly summarize your experiment in a post. Your post should:

not be duplicative of another student’s cited experiment
explain how your experiment would be considered an over-confidence effect
·provide a reference list
Use your own words (i.e., no quotes, and do not plagiarize)
Post an initial 200-word response

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